surging

the thing is i'm going through a folder of old screenshots, looking for an item that might be in there, and i'm finding all these stock charts i saved when i was using this folder, a few months back. here and there one is catching my eye. who knows when i'll look at these again, so i can do something positive by moving selected charts into this live section of my cloud.

i wondered if  i had missed the boat on this one.

but, no, it's still down and behaving nicely.

it's making bottoms, wide shallow ones, and at higher levels than it did before (when the bottom was more spiky). this pattern is called a surge. now, just because it's surging doesn't mean it won't go down, next, and if it does it will tend to stay down for a while. what the surge means is it's got some substance to it. it could make a splash some time. remember we are only buying a little. if it goes down we buy a little more. it would be nice to know exactly when it's ready to splash, and i'm not saying it would be impossible to figure that out ... well, it might be. The pattern right now is distinctive, but i give it only a 50% chance of producing an immediate splash. To put it another way, it has a 30% chance of making a splash, a 30% chance of going sideways, and a 30% chance of going down. That looks like a non prediction but a) not every stock has a thirty percent chance of making a splash within days, and then, b) not every stock has a 30% chance of going down, and, too, i'm not talking about down a little. remember how NETE went down 80% on me? this is the nature of the prediction, and that's why i'm telling you to be very careful and only invest delicate amounts. read the previous post.

a splash. i predict a splash ... to 8. then a dip, back to 3. it's an insane thought. long term is the way to make real money ... but i feel so impatient!

what about the fundamentals?

they're well established in a certain line of business. it's actually a fairly large company. they're consistently losing a little money - this over the last several years. book value is decent. what's their line of business? well, it's kind of interesting and it does sound quite professional ... and, well, glamorous. fundamentals kind of support the idea that it could make a splash ... and seem to suggest it's not too risk and that it's good for the long term.



that's a very energetic pattern ... the last 20 bars. of course, the last bar is nascent ...

i really want to thank FinViz for these charts. they're terrific.

splash

I already own a few hundred shares. I think I bought them at $1 and now they're down 80%.

I bought because of the chart. I remember I really liked it. I still really like it but I'm thinking more carefully about why.

Basically I see this going to 10 again ... some time this year, maybe? next year, maybe? ... and then back to zero again.

I checked the fundamentals.

I actually like this company. What they do sounds important, and it sounds like they're good at it. They're selling a lot more than they were three years ago - still a tiny business, but up significantly. They're losing money at a fair clip, though less of a clip than three years ago, so there's a positive twist to that as well.

I stand by my prediction. These guys don't have enough momentum to take over the world, and when that becomes obvious the market will abandon their stock, and it'll go back to zero for a long time, but the market is right to support them now. They're doing good work. They are also able to make their case to the market. That's what pushed the stock up to so much higher levels for a considerable period - all of 2013, I mean, anyway. And it certainly jumped up there. That's called a splash. Somehow they made one. My gut tells me they're good for another one in this episode.

It's certainly tempting to study this chart closely. If we could just catch two splashes of the sort shown here, in a year, we could do very well. And the chart from 2009 to 2012 is the exact kind of chart we would expect to see before a splash. What type of chart is that? Hmm. Over a four year period, small splashes - but a splash is a splash - a splash is instantaneous - separated by wide, shallow troughs. More precisely what we can see is a set of splashes, a wide shallow trough, another set of splashes, and another trough forming ... and with a surging quality to it. Looking for that kind of chart we could catch a splash.

Will every such chart produce a splash? Will every such chart produce a splash this big? Who know? Not me. If you're starting out, try to catch splashes with $100 investments. If you catch one right away you'll then have a couple of thousand dollars in free investment money (though you'll have to pay taxes on your gain, don't forget). And if one of those investments after another is a bust, you're still only out a few hundred dollars. That's the risk and reward on this system.

prediction

i think it's gonna pull back for a bit, now, but only to 5, so selling at 7 gets you no advantage. it would be another chance to buy. this is a hold right up to 40, no, 45. then maybe it's a sell, maybe not. but we have to be prepared to wait. for an example of a real bottom, look at the early part of the chart! i say it could go sideways more again ... but i don't know. that's we buy these whenever prices are low. still haven't checked the fundamentals. the updating chart is: two posts down.

random

this was simply the biggest mover today

let's assume you bought some in May at 5, bought more in August at 3, bought again under 3 in November, and at 2.25 in December, and at just over 2 in January, and tomorrow you will sell at 7 ... ok, that last would be stupid ... hold it! i wonder what the fundamentals are like?


20 is sort of the next test. (today it reacted off of 9.) i wonder what the fundamentals are like?